State Bank of India (SBI) has estimated the country’s economy to expand by 7.5-7.6%, slower than the prior quarter, mainly on account of a slowdown in rural demand. Its Ecowrap report says that the SBI Composite Leading Indicator (CLI), a basket of 21 leading indicators for the quarter in consideration, is showing a marginal declining trend. Consequently, the headline second quarter Gross Value Added (GVA) growth could be 7.3-7.4%, due to the slowing of rural demand. GVA is the measure of national income and output that includes taxes and excludes subsidies. As per the first-quarter (April-June) figures released earlier by the Central Statistics Office, GDP had grown by 8.2%. It also said that commercial vehicle sales, domestic air passenger traffic and cement production have maintained double-digit growth during the second quarter, pushing up the quarter’s GVA estimate.
GDP growth in Q2 likely to slow
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