According to former Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar India is likely to clock 6 per cent growth rate next fiscal and the country can persevere with a high growth rate because of several reforms undertaken during the last eight years by the Narendra Modi government. He said major risks going forward will emerge from a synchronized downturn in the North American and European economies.

“India has a good opportunity to persevere with a high growth rate because of the reforms undertaken during the last eight years. We will manage to grow at 6 per cent in 2023-24.”

According to Kumar, there are several downside risks, especially in the context of an uncertain global situation. “These will have to be tackled through careful policy measures designed to support our export efforts and at the same time improve the flow of private investment both from domestic sources as well as from foreign sources,” he said.

The RBI has projected India’s economic growth at 6.4 per cent for 2023-24, broadly in line with the estimate of the Economic Survey tabled in Parliament. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is estimated at 7 per cent in 2022-23, according to the first advance estimate of the National Statistical Office (NSO). The Economic Survey 2022-23 projected a baseline GDP growth of 6.5 per cent in real terms for the next fiscal.

Kumar said the Reserve Bank has said that it will ensure that inflation rate is brought under control. “Also a good winter crop will help in keeping the food prices low,” he noted.

The RBI lowered the consumer price inflation (CPI) forecast to 6.5 per cent for the current fiscal from 6.7 per cent. India’s retail inflation in January was 6.52 per cent.

Kumar suggested that New Delhi should re-engage with Beijing on finding greater market opportunities and access in the Chinese market. “There are several products which India can export more to China. That will require a considered re-engagement,” he emphasised. According to Kumar, it would be feasible for India to restrict imports from China because most imported products are quite essential imports.

According to recent data released by the Chinese customs, the trade between India and China touched an all-time high of USD 135.98 billion in 2022, while New Delhi’s trade deficit with Beijing crossed the USD 100 billion mark for the first time despite frosty bilateral relations.

On Adani crisis Rajiv Kumar said “I don’t think that one such incident with a private family company will hamper that effort.… There are a large number of private sector companies who have participated in infrastructure development in the past and will continue to do so going forward.”

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