Xi Jinping laid out Beijing’s ambitions for an alternative international order when China’s leader welcomed his counterparts from Russia, India and Iran to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation security forum.
The two-day summit in Tianjin gave Xi the opportunity to offer a contrast to US President Donald Trump’s global stewardship. It also marked the first visit to China by Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, in seven years- a signal of New Delhi’s deep frustration with Washington over Trump’s tariff war.
This is a group of countries that have been significantly antagonized by the west, especially by the US. China is bringing them together and making a statement about global governance and the global order. It is saying that we, the SCO, have a very different vision.
Trump, who has dismissed India as a “dead economy”, argues that the 25 per cent “reciprocal” tariffs he had already imposed were justified by New Delhi’s hefty trade surplus and highly protected domestic market. But his claim that the additional 25 per cent rate implemented was a response to Indian purchases of discounted Russian oil that were helping to fund Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine will only fuel complaints about US hypocrisy and capriciousness. Until recently, Washington had no objection to such purchases. Nor has Trump taken similar action against China — an even bigger buyer of Russian crude.
New Delhi was already upset about Trump’s deepening embrace of its arch-rival Pakistan. The US president has echoed some of Islamabad’s phraseology on the disputed territory of Kashmir since he claimed to have brokered the ceasefire that ended bloody clashes between the Asian neighbours in May. In June, Trump held a two-hour private lunch in Washington with Pakistani strongman Asim Munir.
It is a remarkable change of approach even for the mercurial president, who has previously described Modi as his “true friend”. In 2020, Trump told a cheering crowd of over 100,000 people in Gujarat that “America loves India, America respects India, and America will always be faithful and loyal friends to the Indian people.”
His U-turn will only help China’s efforts to portray itself as a more reliable international interlocutor. America’s unpredictability will do little to persuade major nations such as India that they should distance themselves from Beijing or Moscow.
Long-standing tensions between New Delhi and Beijing began easing before Donald Trump’s second presidency, and India has played down any link between Modi’s trip and the US tariff barrage. But it is clear that Trump’s actions in recent months have dealt a heavy blow to efforts by successive US governments to build a relationship with India that would act as a bulwark against Chinese domination of the Indo-Pacific.
China and India have been at logger-heads since a war in 1962. Relations hit a low five years ago following deadly clashes along their disputed Himalayan border. Tensions rose again in May over China’s supplies of weapons, including fighter jets to Pakistan during a four-day cross-border conflict with India.
The likely extent of the rapprochement should not be overstated. India will remain highly concerned about the security of its northern flank. Beijing is also extending its influence in South Asia and is a crucial supplier of funding and military equipment to Pakistan. Chinese and Indian leaders have described their relationship as a dance of a dragon and an elephant. Such unlikely partners will need nimble footwork just to avoid bumping into each other.
