India Under Modi & US Trade Deal

United States President Donald Trump announced a “trade deal” with India aimed at lowering market barriers between the two nations, which together have a combined gross domestic product of $33 trillion. Trump stated he would lower tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18% after New Delhi agreed to cease purchasing Russian oil, a key point of contention between the two nations.

Trump announced that he and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached an agreement during a phone call. This comes at the close of Trump’s first year of a global trade war, which has been particularly damaging to India and has caused relations between the two nations to deteriorate to their lowest point in months.

Commerce Minister Priyush Goyal confirmed that the two countries would sign a deal “shortly”. A joint statement will be released when the final details have been agreed, he said. Goyal emphasised that India has fully safeguarded its sensitive dairy and agriculture sectors in the trade pact with the United States, even as it opened wider opportunities for labour-intensive and export-oriented industries. Goyal said the agreement was structured to ensure that core farm segments, including dairy and key staple crops, remain protected from disruptive import competition, describing the outcome as one that respects the interests of Indian farmers while still expanding trade. However, he gave no further details about the agreement’s contents.

Beyond Trump’s announcement regarding tariffs on Indian goods, uncertainty about the future of US-India trade relations persists. Trump asserts that Delhi has agreed to purchase oil from the US instead, but India has not publicly confirmed this. Although Trump stated that Modi had agreed to remove all Indian tariffs on US goods, India has not confirmed this.

So, nothing is clear to date. However, this episode clearly proves three major points.

First, Beijing emphasizes that India is not a US proxy and should not be perceived as one, a point that is very significant for China, which closely notes that India did not publicly endorse Trump’s hardline positions, avoided unified rhetoric that could constrain China, and maintained open communication with all parties.

China interprets this as India preferring flexibility over aligning with a US-led alliance. Chinese strategic insights indicate that India is assertive, not subordinate, and that Modi is willing to withstand short-term pressures to maintain long-term independence. Instead of creating a bloc, India is adopting a multi-faceted strategy. As a result, Beijing does not see Modi as surrendering to Trump.

They view Trump as recognizing that India cannot be controlled like an ally. This slightly eases China’s fears that India is a US pawn on the front lines, which helps maintain border stability.

And what is Russia’s perspective? Moscow’s straightforward stance is that India has passed the loyalty test. Russia has always been concerned about one main point: “Will India ultimately forsake strategic autonomy to gain US approval?”

In this episode, Russia observes: no public distancing from itself, no acceptance of US-style exclusivity, and no humiliation of old partners to appease Washington. This reassures Moscow that India continues to prioritize its own interests over the West. Defense and energy relations remain unaffected by US pressure. This is why Russian commentary often claims that India manages its relations with Washington more effectively than Europe does. Such praise is considered significant within Russian strategic culture.

What neither China nor Russia believes

They do not believe Modi “gave in” to Trump. They know that India felt pressured, but the optics were just about appearances. Both nations are experienced in handling US pressure and can distinguish between superficial gestures and true strategic concessions. They saw no evidence of the latter.

The main strategic achievement noticed by foreign capitals is that India was able to say “no” without appearing anti-US. This is uncommon. Europe tends to agree initially and then complain afterward. China tends to say no and escalate tensions. Russia often says no and causes a rupture. In contrast, India said no while maintaining a functional relationship. That combination increases India’s value to everyone: the US needs India more, China respects India more, and Russia trusts India more.

If we compress Beijing + Moscow + Washington thinking into one sentence: India under Modi is predictable in interests, unpredictable in alignment. That is exactly how a rising power wants to be seen. And that is why, internationally, this episode is not framed as a Modi sell-out but as India’s arrival as a confident, independent pole.