Moody’s Ratings has projected India’s GDP to grow by 6.4 percent in the next fiscal year, the fastest pace among G-20 economies, driven by strong domestic consumption, policy measures, and a stable banking system.
In its banking system outlook report, Moody’s said their asset quality will remain resilient, with some stress among micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Regardless, banks have sufficient reserves to absorb loan losses, it said. The operating environment for banks will remain strong in 2026, supported by robust macroeconomic conditions and structural reforms, it said.
“We forecast India’s real GDP will grow 6.4 per cent for fiscal 2026-27, the fastest pace among G-20 economies, driven by strong domestic consumption and policy measures. The rationalization of the goods and services tax (GST) in September 2025 and an earlier increase in personal income tax thresholds will help improve affordability for consumers and support consumption-led growth,” Moody’s said.
Moody’s FY’27 GDP growth estimates are lower than the 6.8-7.2 per cent range projected by the Finance Ministry’s Economic Survey tabled in Parliament. As per official estimates, India is likely to grow at a faster pace of 7.4 per cent in the current fiscal (2025-26), higher than the 6.5 per cent growth clocked in 2024-25. Moody’s said that, with inflation under control and growth momentum remaining strong, it anticipates the RBI will further ease monetary policy in fiscal 2026-27 only if there are signs of a slowdown in economic activity.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has lowered its policy rate by a total of 125 basis points to 5.25 per cent in 2025. Moody’s expects system-wide loan growth to accelerate slightly to 11–13 per cent in fiscal 2026–27, from 10.6 per cent in fiscal 2025-26 YTD.
It further said that banks will maintain strong capitalization, supported by internal capital generation that keeps pace with asset growth. Banks’ funding and liquidity will be stable, with loans growing in line with deposits.
