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Some Unfortunate Truths About Investing

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  • The phrase “double-dip recession” was mentioned 10.8 million times in 2010 and 2011, according to Google. It never came. There were virtually no mentions of “financial collapse” in 2006 and 2007. It did come.
  • Thirty years ago, there was one hour of market TV per day. Today, there’s upwards of 18 hours. What changed isn’t the volume of news, but the volume of nonsense.
  • There is no accountability in the financial pundit arena. People who have been wrong about everything for years still draw crowds. The more someone is on TV, the less likely his or her predictions are to come true. Trust no one who is on any financial TV news channel more than twice a week.
  • Most of what is taught about investing in university is theoretical nonsense. There are very few rich professors.
  • Markets go through at least one big pullback every year, and one massive pullback every decade. Get used to it. It’s just what they do.
  • The more comfortable an investment feels, the more likely you are to be slaughtered.
  • Instead of trading penny stocks, just light your money on fire.
  • Not a single person in the world knows what the market will do in the short run. End of the story.
  • There will be 7 to 10 recessions over the next 50 years. Don’t act surprised when they come.
  • The majority of market news is not only useless, but also harmful to your financial health.
  • Most IPOs will burn you. People with more information than you, want to sell.
  • The best investors in the world have more of an edge in psychology than in finance.
  • What markets do day to day is overwhelmingly driven by random chance. Ascribing explanations to short-term moves is like trying to explain lottery numbers.
  • If you have credit card debt and are thinking about investing in anything, stop. You will never beat 30% annual interest.
  • A large portion of share buybacks are just offsetting shares issued to management as compensation. Managers still tout the buybacks as “returning money to shareholders.”

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